CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-15T15:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20841/-1
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T20:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-19T07:08Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 67.25%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -20.60 hour(s)
Difference: -10.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-07-19T17:16Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement